Ioana Dorhoi, PhD – Government Relations and Public Affairs

February 28, 2025

By Ioana Monica Dorhoi, PhD

As U.S. and Ukrainian leaders approach negotiations over a potential minerals deal, the true value of Ukraine’s mineral wealth remains uncertain. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claims the country’s mineral resources are “priceless,” while former President Donald Trump envisions a trillion-dollar deal, vital for strengthening U.S. supply chains. Despite these bold statements, the question remains: what are these critical minerals actually worth?

The ambiguity around the value of Ukraine’s mineral resources stems from several factors. The full scope of what lies beneath Ukraine’s soil is not completely mapped, with many important deposits such as lithium, graphite, uranium, and titanium only partially explored. Furthermore, the extraction process for these minerals is costly, complicated, and time-consuming, making it unclear whether these resources are economically viable in the short term. Mining operations would demand substantial investments in infrastructure and technology, something that, in many cases, has not yet been developed.

Robert Muggah, a geopolitical expert, pointed out that extracting these minerals would require billions in investment, and many of these resources may not even be worth the cost of extraction. The slow pace of mineral development poses a significant challenge for both Ukraine and the U.S., especially when considering the volatile security situation in the region. Ukrainian officials have admitted that much of the country’s resource-rich regions, such as Donbas, are currently under Russian control, making them inaccessible for mining and exploration. Estimates suggest that up to 40% of Ukraine’s critical minerals are located in these occupied territories.

In particular, Ukraine is known for its substantial deposits of lithium, graphite, uranium, and titanium—critical minerals vital for modern technologies. Lithium and graphite are key components in electric vehicle batteries, while uranium is central to nuclear energy production. Titanium is used in aerospace and defense industries due to its strength and lightweight properties. While estimates suggest that Ukraine holds up to 20% of the world’s titanium reserves, the actual quantity and quality of these deposits are still unclear, with some experts being more conservative in their assessments.

However, it is not just the availability of these minerals that poses a challenge; it is the processing. Mining titanium, for example, involves transforming raw materials like ilmenite into titanium sponge—a process that is energy-intensive and expensive. Ukraine’s only titanium sponge plant, located in Zaporizhzhia, has ceased operations due to the ongoing conflict. This creates a bottleneck in the supply chain, as the process is key to producing titanium alloys used in high-end industries like aerospace.

Ukraine’s lithium reserves are estimated to be some of the largest in Europe, but extracting this mineral is also complicated. Ukraine’s lithium deposits are primarily found in petalite, a mineral that is more challenging to mine and process compared to other forms of lithium. As a result, the extraction costs are higher, and refining the mineral to a usable grade is both costly and environmentally hazardous.

The extraction of graphite, another key material for batteries, also presents significant hurdles. The Zavallivsky graphite mine, which is among Ukraine’s largest, has not seen modern upgrades since Soviet times, further complicating efforts to extract and refine the mineral to meet the growing global demand for electric vehicle batteries.

Despite these challenges, there is growing interest in Ukraine’s mineral resources, driven by competition with China, which currently dominates the global market for many of these critical minerals. The U.S. has long sought alternatives to Chinese dominance in the supply of rare earths and other minerals. However, developing new projects outside of China has proven difficult due to high costs, environmental concerns, and the complexity of modern mining.

Trump has expressed a keen interest in using Ukraine’s mineral wealth as a way to offset U.S. military and financial support since Russia’s invasion in 2022. While both the U.S. and Ukraine have pushed for a deal that would provide access to these minerals, the long-term nature of these projects means that any potential agreement would be a significant commitment. Even with access to Ukraine’s resources, it could take years, if not decades, to make mining operations profitable or operational, especially in a region with ongoing instability.

Ukraine’s other natural resources, such as iron ore, oil, and gas, are more immediately viable, but critical minerals are what could potentially secure Ukraine’s long-term place in the global economy. As U.S. officials consider potential deals, there is still no clear roadmap for how to turn Ukraine’s vast mineral wealth into an economic boon.

While a minerals deal could be lucrative in the future, it will require sustained investments and improvements in mining technology and infrastructure—both of which are in short supply in Ukraine. In the meantime, questions remain about the economic and political feasibility of such a deal, with some experts warning that it may be too early to count on these minerals as a cornerstone of U.S.-Ukraine relations.

Ultimately, while the potential is there, the true worth of Ukraine’s critical minerals is still largely unknown. Only time and further exploration will reveal whether these resources can live up to their promised value.